Prediction Analysis 2019

The last 6 weeks of running 100 Warm Tunas has been a total whirlwind. We saw so much movement in our top 10, all the way up until Hottest 100 Day. We saw a Like A Version predicted to come in at first place, and surprisingly saw the betting agencies favorite predicted to place at 8th.

This year we began to collect your votes from two new sources: The Reddit r/triplej voting thread, as well as Instagram Stories.

Summary

  • We collected 4,929 entries (20.9% decrease since 2018 🔻)
  • We tallied 45,112 votes across these entries (22.8% decrease since 2018 🔻)
  • triple j counted 3,211,596 votes.
  • Therefore, we collected a sample of 1.4%.
  • We did not successfully predict #1
  • We predicted 8 out of the top 10 songs.
  • We predicted 14 out of the top 20 songs.
  • We predicted 73 out of the top 100 songs played in the countdown.
  • Throughout December and January, 100warmtunas.com was loaded over 180,000 times by over 51,000 users, with over 21,000 users viewing the site on Hottest 100 day.
  • Our website served 204 GB of data across 6,496,043 requests

Even with new collection sources across Instagram Story and Reddit, our sample size still decreased compared to previous years. Unfortunately, this is driving our prediction to be less reliable at being able to predict exact places, and instead only providing a general range of where songs might place (i.e. knowing which songs should hit top 10).

Technical Analysis

Unfortunately, we were not able to predict the outright winner this year, however, we did successfully predict 8 out of the top 10 songs if you ignore the actual ranks. On top of this, we successfully predicted the correct confidence intervals for Billie Eilish's “bad guy”, estimating it to rank between positions 5 and 1.

Lets take a look at the top 10 of the official countdown and match it up with the predicted places in 100 Warm Tunas:

Artist Title ABC Rank Tunas Rank Difference
Billie Eilish bad guy 1 2 1
Flume Rushing Back {Ft. Vera Blue} 2 8 6
Mallrat Charlie 3 3 0
Tones And I Dance Monkey 4 7 3
Denzel Curry Bulls On Parade {triple j Like A Version 2019} 5 1 4
G Flip Drink Too Much 6 4 2
Lime Cordiale Robbery 7 13 6
The Jungle Giants Heavy Hearted 8 9 1
Thelma Plum Better In Blak 9 5 4
Hilltop Hoods Exit Sign {Ft. Illy/Ecca Vandal} 10 12 2

Lets pull apart this table a bit more and grab some statistics about how we did with our prediction overall:

Predicted Out Of Top N Percentage
8 10 80.0%
14 20 70.0%
22 30 73.3%
31 40 77.5%
38 50 76.0%
42 60 70.0%
53 70 75.7%
60 80 75.0%
67 90 74.4%
73 100 73.0%
162 200 81.0%

From the above data, we can see that:

  • The average error for the top ten ranks was 2.9 positions (a massive decrease from 2018's 6.8 positions due to an outlier in the top 10).
  • Warm Tunas predicted 8 out of the top 10 songs.
  • Warm Tunas predicted 14 out of the top 20 songs.
  • Warm Tunas predicted 73 out of the 100 songs played in the countdown.

To compare Warm Tuna's predictions vs actual rankings, a scatter plot has been provided below. We can see as we get closer to rank 1, the 100 Warm Tunas prediction gets better and converges upon the actual rankings played out on the day:

Accuracy of Predicted Ranks

As mentioned in our previous post, making exact predictions is difficult, especially when you only have a small fraction of the data. The data will generally give you a good indication, but will never allow you to predict, with certainty, that a particular outcome will occur. This is the reason we implemented confidence intervals on our predictions for the top 10.

The following tables depict the range of error exhibited across different cross-sections of the countdown.

Accuracy of the Top 10:

In the top 10, we observe that 80% of our predictions were accurate within 4 places of their actual position in the countdown. Pretty impressive!

Positions Off Num Occurences % Positions Off (Cumulative) Ocurrences Cumulative %
0-4 8 80% 0-4 8 80%
5-9 2 20% 0-9 10 100%

Accuracy of the Top 20:

Across the top 20, 75% of our predictions were accurate within 9 places of their actual position in the countdown.

Positions Off Num Occurences % Positions Off (Cumulative) Ocurrences Cumulative %
0-9 15 75% 0-9 15 75%
10-19 4 20% 0-19 19 95%
> 80 1 5% > 0 20 100%
Did not rank 0 0% - - -

Accuracy of the Top 50:

The trend continues across the top 50, with 46% of our predictions being accurate within 9 places of their actual position in the countdown and 72% being accurate within 19 places. This shows that 100 Warm Tunas is still reasonably good at predicting a general idea of what songs will play during the countdown.

Positions Off Num Occurences % Positions Off (Cumulative) Ocurrences Cumulative %
0-9 23 46% 0-9 23 46%
10-19 13 26% 0-19 36 72%
20-29 6 12% 0-29 42 84%
30-39 1 2% 0-39 43 86%
40-49 0 0% 0-49 43 86%
50-59 1 2% 0-59 44 88%
60-69 1 2% 0-69 45 90%
70-79 2 4% 0-79 47 94%
> 80 3 6% > 0 50 100%
Did not rank 0 0% - - -

Accuracy of the Top 100:

For completeness, the accuracy bands of the top 100 have also been provided

Positions Off Num Occurences % Positions Off (Cumulative) Ocurrences Cumulative %
0-9 35 35% 0-9 35 35%
10-19 18 18% 0-19 53 53%
20-29 13 13% 0-29 66 66%
30-39 7 7% 0-39 73 73%
40-49 4 4% 0-49 77 77%
50-59 2 2% 0-59 79 79%
60-69 6 6% 0-69 85 85%
70-79 5 5% 0-79 90 90%
> 80 7 7% > 0 97 97%
Did not rank 3 3% - - -

Vote Source Breakdown

We are now collecting votes from a handful of different sources. Here is the break down of how many votes were counted across the different sources:

Source Num Entries Num Votes Votes Per Entry
Instagram Feed 3126 28,996 9.2758
Instagram Story 858 7,434 8.6643
Instagram DM 360 3,383 9.3972
Twitter 576 5,243 9.1024
Reddit 174 1,481 8.5115
Total 5,094 46,537 9.1356
Total (after de-duplication) 4,929 45,112 9.1524

Vote Submissions

It comes as no surprise that the most popular day for people to share their votes was on the day of voting opened with a massive 717 entries collected, followed by the day voting closed with 445 entries collected. We also observed a slight spike on the eve and morning of Hottest 100 Day:

Our quietest day is observed to be Christmas day with only 14 submissions collected.

We can break down the votes collected for each song over time:

Website Stats

Throughout December and January, 100warmtunas.com was loaded over 180,000 times by over 51,000 users, with over 21,000 users viewing the site on Hottest 100 day. Thanks to Cloudflare, we served 204 GB of data across 6,496,043 requests with no downtime, all for free.

The demographic of 100 Warm Tunas visitors is quite different compared to the demographics of those who are voting in the Hottest 100. 69% of our users are Male, and our highest volume age bracket is 25-34.

Our users love to use their mobile devices with 80% of our sessions this year coming from mobile devices. 58% of our users were on iOS with 23% on Android.

Wrap Up

Whilst we didn’t pick the outright winner, we did successfully predict 8 of the 10 of the songs which landed in the top 10. We believe this is the most important metric rather than exact positions. With the shrinking amount of data, it’s getting harder and harder to pick the outright winner with certainty.

We'd like to thank everyone who shared their votes, visited our site or interacted with us on Instagram. Without our audience, 100 Warm Tunas wouldn't be possible.

We are looking forward to running the prediction again in March for triple j’s Hottest 100 of the Decade.